01 The subversive logic behind absurd data
- Zero revenue myth: The company’s financial report shows that it has never generated any sales revenue since its establishment, and it suffered a net loss of US$4.4 million in fiscal year 2024.
- Traditional Chinese Medicine Breaking the Wall: The core research and development direction is to use pure natural Chinese medicine compound to treat ADHD (attention deficit hyperactivity disorder) and autism, claiming that “there are no synthetic ingredients”.
- Doubts about the COVID-19 trial: In 2022, it claimed to eliminate COVID-19 symptoms in 6 days (the data has not been peer-reviewed)
Behind the seemingly crazy capital narrative is the market’s extreme bet on two major gaps: the unknown area of brain science + traditional wisdom that has not been verified by modern medicine.
02 The “Tesla Moment” of Modern Chinese Medicine
When Musk used brain-computer interfaces to challenge neurological diseases, Regencell chose a more “Eastern” path:
“All our drug candidates are based on traditional Chinese medicine theory, and natural ingredients constitute a complete biological system”
-Regencell Bioscience SEC filing original text
And this just hits the two points favored by capital:
1. Disruptive technological imagination: Using ancient prescriptions to deconstruct neurological diseases that modern medicine is helpless against
2. Policy expectations: China’s “14th Five-Year Plan” clearly supports scientific and technological innovation in traditional Chinese medicine
Although the company admitted that it “has no patents, no sales capabilities, and may never make a profit,” capital has declared with a 46,000% increase: in the face of a disruptive story, reality can temporarily withdraw.
03 The capital code behind the surge
1. The ultimate chip game:
- Circulating shares only account for 6% of total shares (Apple 98%, Tesla 87%)
- CEO Yat-Gai Au personally holds 81.2% of shares
- After the 38:1 stock split in July, the stock price soared 283% in a single day
The picture shows the equity structure of Regencell Bioscience. Source: SEC filing
2. “China Narrative” Premium:
When biotech encountered a capital winter, TCM concepts became a new outlet. According to Bloomberg data, the average increase of the “traditional medicine” sector in the US stock market will reach 340% in 2025.
3. A hotbed of retail speculation:
After the stock split, the price per share is less than $5, and the proportion of retail transactions soars to 63% (only 17% in 2024)
04 A Song of Ice and Fire in Modern Chinese Medicine
This carnival hides warnings:
⚠️ Lack of scientific verification: All drugs are in the preclinical stage and have not applied for any regulatory approval
⚠️ Valuation bubble flaw: 30 billion market value is equivalent to 3 Tong Ren Tang, but Tong Ren Tang’s annual revenue exceeds 20 billion
⚠️ Cultural discount risk: FDA has never approved compound Chinese medicine to treat neurological diseases
But the deeper revelation lies in:
✅ Capital recognizes with real money: the modern transformation of traditional medicine contains trillion-level opportunities
✅ The path of modernization of traditional Chinese medicine with “clear ingredients-clear mechanism-evidence-based verification” urgently needs to be broken through
✅ Chinese pharmaceutical companies need to seize the discourse power of “telling the story of traditional Chinese medicine in scientific language”
Regencell’s crazy curves are like a prism:
- Reflects capital’s desire for breakthrough innovation
- Reflecting the potential breakthrough of traditional Chinese medicine in the field of neuroscience
- It also indicates that the integration of biotechnology and traditional medicine has reached a critical point
Perhaps in the next decade, what truly changes the rules of the game is not the speculative myth of a 460-fold surge, but the Chinese laboratory that transforms berberine into an Alzheimer’s drug.
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